Tuesday's news that Fidel Castro is stepping down "allows U.S. companies to dust off the Cuba file," says Caribbean travel analyst Scott D. Berman of PricewaterhouseCoopers. "But I don't think it's going to have immediate impact."
First the United States must lift the embargo against doing business with Cuba, then the island — where tourism is the No. 1 industry — has to make it easy for U.S. hotels and ships to come in, analysts say.
"Do they want to facilitate development?" says Scott Smith of PKF Consulting, who specializes in the Caribbean and Central America. "I think there will be a delay."
A resort building boom by European chains has resulted in 70,000 hotel rooms, Berman says. The island drew 2.1 million visitors last year, says Christopher P. Baker, author of five books about Cuba. Most were Europeans and Canadians.
U.S. chains may be eager to go in, "but if you get caught (by the United States), it is a serious offense," says Philippe Bourguignon, ex-CEO of Club Med who opened one in Cuba in the 1990s.
Cuba is a "fantastic location because it is a big island, has this mix of culture," Bourguignon says. Its location near Florida and its history as a onetime getaway for Americans also are draws.
After learning of Castro's resignation, New Yorker Jim Friedlander was on the phone to Marazul Charters, a U.S. travel agency licensed to send certain Americans to Cuba. Its business plummeted after the Bush administration tightened the long-standing embargo in 2004. Today, a limited few, including journalists, educators, professional researchers and Cuban-Americans visiting family, legally can go.
"I'd love to go back," says Friedlander, who leads cultural tours for non-profit groups. He visited Cuba 15 times from 1999 to 2003 and raves about "the best (Spanish) colonial architecture in the Western Hemisphere, superb performing and visual arts and a warm, well-educated populace."
For Cuba to appeal to the U.S. market, it needs better infrastructure, hotels and a lot of airline service, Berman says.
"No one knows what might happen … we do not want to speculate about flights to Cuba," says Tim Smith of American Airlines.
Cuba is an opportunity for cruise lines as a new destination with "lack of developed hotel infrastructure," says Robin M. Farley, analyst for UBS Investment Research.
Change in Cuba and in U.S. presidents "promises potentially good things for travel" there, Baker says.
By Kitty Bean Yancey and Laura Bly, USA TODAY
Contributing: Gene Sloan
